Probability Management (parts 1 and 2) (Sam Savage)
Summarise the paper.
– What problems are the authors trying to solve?
– What do they mean by �coherent� modelling?
– What is their overall scheme for probability management technology?
– How do they think these techniques should be managed?
– How could they be applied more widely than business planning?
Critically analyse the paper.
– How important is this, or could it be, as an element of risk management?
– What kind of people and organizations would be best placed to use Probability Management?
– Who would struggle to do it, or would get no value from it?
– Could probability management be done in simpler ways than the illustration in part 2?
In addition to the group presentation on your assigned topic, you are required to write an individual report on this topic of no more than 1200 words. This can take the same structure as the presentation, but this individual report gives you an opportunity to add your own personal analysis of the material studied for the presentation. Additionally, you are free to add discussion of other related papers if you wish. As always, make sure you fully reference all sources used in your report. Title your report clearly with a topic and topic number. Reports should be 1.5 spaced, in Arial font size12, and stapled and not clipped to an assignment sheet.
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There is freedom and flexibility in what you choose the purpose of your report to be. You can focus narrowly within your topic or write more broadly about it. What really matters is that you specify, within your report, what its purpose is. Remember that this report is an opportunity to get feedback on the quality of your academic writing, so treat it as an exercise in academic writing and follow all the standard academic referencing conventions both throughout the text and in the reference list at the end.